Three scenarios for war to break out in Korea 0
US aircraft carrier battle group USS Carl Vinson.
The United States’ recent sudden dispatch of the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier battle group near the Korean peninsula to deal with Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program is causing international public opinion to worry about the risk of an outbreak of war.
Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said that the current tense situation on the Korean peninsula could lead to three worst-case scenarios, pushing the region and
North Korea misunderstands
In the first situation that Lewis poses, the North Korean leader may misunderstand that the US is making aggressive moves to launch a pre-emptive strike against the country, forcing Pyongyang to act first to defend itself.
Although US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recently affirmed that the US still pursues a policy of denuclearization of North Korea, not regime change in this country, Washington suddenly dispatched a powerful aircraft carrier strike group to South Korea.
According to Lewis, North Korea’s military doctrine is built on the belief that they will face a large-scale invasion by `US imperialism and Korean lackeys`, so Pyongyang is ready to do everything.
Lewis believes that if North Korea decides to use nuclear weapons from day one in a potential war with the United States, South Korea and possibly Japan will be destroyed so severely that the US-South Korean coalition will barely survive.
North Korea’s recent consecutive nuclear tests show that this country has achieved formidable nuclear capabilities, with long-range missiles that can reach the US military base in Guam, or even the US military base in Guam.
North Korea’s recent ballistic missile test launches are also considered rehearsals for pre-emptive strikes on airports or high-value military targets in South Korea and Japan that the US favors.
Three scenarios for war to break out in Korea
A live-fire exercise by North Korean artillery
However, this North Korean strategy can only succeed if they are the ones to launch a nuclear attack first, based on the North Korean leader’s assessment of the risk of US invasion.
South Korea reacted strongly to North Korea’s provocation
North Korea is often accused of taking provocative actions against South Korea.
Korean special forces soldiers.
Lewis believes that these actions continually test the limits of South Korean leaders’ tolerance.
South Korean leaders are increasingly showing their determination to do their best to respond to North Korea’s provocations, including the risk they fear most: a nuclear attack.
Many South Korean politicians believe that if they can remove Kim Jong-un, North Korea will lose the ability to launch a nuclear attack on South Korea.
Trump ‘must follow the rush’
In this scenario, Lewis said that the US may feel embarrassed when North Korea takes actions contrary to Mr. Trump’s claim that the situation on the peninsula is under control.
North Korean coastal artillery opened fire.
In that case, Trump will decide to isolate North Korea like what the US did in the war in Iraq in 2003: Mobilize military forces to the region, gather a few allies, and ask Congress for authority.
Lewis worries that the Trump administration, like its predecessor the Bush administration in 2003, believes that this war will easily achieve its goals, before becoming confused by a crisis it cannot control.
